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Bet on What Stays the Same

What Never Changes Matters More Than What Does

Human Behavior Repeats Because the Wiring Stays the Same

Sorting What Stays From What Changes Builds a Lasting Plan

Surprise Is the Biggest Force in Any Plan

Risk Is Whatever You Did Not See Coming

Calm Plants the Seeds of Crazy

Ordering the Stages of Boom and Bust Shows How Calm Seeds Crisis

Expectations Set the Score

Happiness Is What Is Left When Expectations Are Taken From Results

Room for Error Protects You From Being Wrong

Turning the Expectation Dial Changes How the Same Result Feels

A Few Outliers Drive Nearly Everything

A Handful of Big Events Explains Most Results

Things Break Fast and Build Slowly

Spotting the One Column That Carries the Total

Stories Beat Statistics

Experience Writes the Beliefs People Hold

A Good Story Wins Before the Evidence Is Heard

Sorting Claims Separates Personal Stories From Broad Patterns

Plan to Survive, Not to Predict

Plans Need Slack Because Forecasts Miss

Optimism Works Best Behind a Cushion

Packing a Lifeboat Shows What Protects a Plan From Error

Check Your Understanding

Why Long Calm Stretches Raise the Risk of a Crisis

Why the Same Raise Can Delight One Person and Disappoint Another

What Protects a Plan When the Forecast Turns Out Wrong

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Nobody knows which crisis, technology or boom comes next, yet people keep making plans that depend on knowing. This course shows a sturdier route: lean on the things that stay the same, such as how people react to fear, hope, envy and a good story, and build plans that survive being wrong.

Same as Ever: Plan Around What Never Changes

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